Morning Headlines
- A USA Today/Suffolk Poll shows Democratic Tim Ryan in a dead-heat with Republican JD Vance in the 2022 Ohio US Senate race, only down 42% to 39% among registered voters. But Democrats’ Senate Majority PAC, which spent over $300M in 2020 Senate Races, appears to be committed to investing in a narrower quantity of races this cycle. Gary Peters, the new head of the DSCC, made it clear he does not intend for Democrats to repeat 2020 woes where hundreds of millions of dollars were blown in unwinnable races in KY and SC. Thus far, the Senate Majority PAC has announced $106M of spending in Senate races (the total spending figure has been updated from the original post) but has not slated a single dime for Ryan’s campaign. Elections Daily rates Ohio Senate as Likely R in 2022.
- Republicans have scored a top-tier House recruit in New Hampshire, as Keene Mayor George Hansel announced a run to challenge Democratic Incumbent Ann Kuster in NH-02. Hansel is a liberal Republican and has served as mayor for the deep blue town of Keene since 2020. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu immediately endorsed Hansel. NH-02 is a Biden+9 district, but Sununu won it by 28% in his 2020 Governor Campaign. Kuster is not a particularly strong incumbent, only outperforming Biden by 1% in 2020.
- Democratic Lawyer Michael Sussmann was acquitted on charges of lying to the FBI brought upon him by a Trump-appointed prosecutor. Sussmann offered information to the FBI regarding alleged communication between the Trump Campaign and a Russian Bank. Prosecutors claim that he told the FBI he was not working for any client when he supplied this information but was actually working for the Clinton Campaign.
- A poll of 400 SC-01 voters shows Nancy Mace ahead of Katie Arrington by a margin of 44%-24% ahead of the upcoming June 14 Primary. Mace affirmed certification of all states’ electoral college votes and also voted to hold Steve Bannon in contempt of Congress. She did not vote for impeachment but also claimed that Trump was directly at blame for the January 6th attack on the Capitol. Trump endorsed Arrington, hoping to remove the Trump-skeptic Mace from office. But similar to Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperfer in neighboring Georgia, Mace has held strong thus far.
- South Dakota will vote to become the 20th state to legalize recreational marijuana use on a ballot initiative this fall. A similar ballot initiative in the state failed in 2020 after only 54% of voters chose to legalize the recreational use of the drug. It is unclear what percentage of the vote the ballot initiative will need to reach in order to take effect this fall, but it will either need to surpass a 60% or 66% threshold.
Upcoming Elections
| Tues June 7 | California Primary |
| CA US Senate Special Primary | |
| CA US House 22 Special General | |
| CA State Assembly 62 Special General | |
| CA State Assembly 80 Special General | |
| Iowa Primary | |
| Mississippi Primary | |
| Montana Primary | |
| MT State Senate 15 Special Dem Primary | |
| MT State Senate 15 Special GOP Primary | |
| New Jersey Primary | |
| New Mexico Primary | |
| South Dakota Primary | |
| SD Constitutional Amendment C | |
| Los Angeles, CA Mayoral Primary | |
| San Jose, CA Mayoral Primary | |
| Long Beach, CA Mayoral primary | |
| Chula Vista, CA Mayoral primary | |
| San Francisco DA Recall election | |
| Sat June 11 | AK US House at-large Special top-four Primary |
| Tues June 14 | Maine Primary |
| ME State Senate 7 Special General | |
| Nevada Primary | |
| North Dakota Primary | |
| South Carolina Primary | |
| TX US House 34 Special General | |
| Henderson, NV Mayoral primary | |
| Reno, NV Mayoral primary | |
| North Las Vegas, NV Mayoral primary | |
| Tues June 21 | Virginia Primary |
| Washington, DC Mayoral Primary | |
| Alabama runoff | |
| Arkansas runoff | |
| Georgia runoff |