Morning Headlines
- A candidate for governor in Michigan, Ryan Kelley, was arrested by the FBI Thursday morning at his home in Allendale. Kelley faces misdemeanor criminal charges related to the Jan 6, 2021 attack at the U.S. Capitol. The criminal complaint states that Kelley took part in attempting to disrupt the certification of election results, knowingly entered and engaged in disorderly conduct in restricted buildings or grounds, and engaged in an act of physical violence against a person or property. The evidence against him includes several photos and videos posted on social media. As of right now, Kelley will still appear on the statewide ballot for governor, where he was arguably the favorite among five other Republican candidates. The winner of that race is expected to face Democratic incumbent Governor Gretchen Whitmer in the general election this November.
- Pennsylvania’s recount is over. Officials announced on Wednesday that Mehmet Oz defeated David McCormick by 951 votes in the Republican Senate primary- which is roughly the same margin as after the votes were first counted. Out of 1,345,230 votes cast, Oz was previously projected by DDHQ to hold a final lead of 972 votes. The recount was officially ordered by Acting Secretary of State Leigh M. Chapman on May 27, as the difference in vote shares was 0.07 percent. Under Pennsylvania law, a difference of less than 0.5 percent triggers an automatic recall. McCormick had already conceded to Oz on Friday, stating, “It’s now clear to me, with the recount now largely complete, that we have a nominee”. McCormick endorsed Oz’s candidacy in the general election against Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, who won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania against Congressman Conor Lamb.
- DDHQ has officially projected that the Los Angeles Mayoral race will be determined in a November runoff between billionaire businessman Rick Caruso and Congresswoman Karen Bass. Caruso currently leads Bass by 16,371 votes. The Los Angeles County Registrar/County Clerk announced that there were an estimated 400,000 mail ballots not yet counted as of 8:27pm EDT, Wednesday night. Per our models, that likely means ~150,000 ballots left in LA city, but it is not expected to push either candidate above 50% (Caruso currently holds 42.14% of the vote; Bass 36.95%).
- The MS-03 GOP race between incumbent Michael Guest, who voted for the Jan 6th commission and has been under attack by the America First wing of the GOP, and US Navy Vet Michael Cassidy, will head to a runoff election scheduled for June 28, DDHQ projects. Cassidy currently holds 47.43% of the vote to Guest’s 46.97%.
- In CA-40, DDHQ projects incumbent moderate Republican Young Kim will advance to the General Election to face Asif Mahmood (D). Widely regarded as a rising young star within GOP circles, Kim has defeated her challenger from the right, Greg Raths.
- Ryan Zinke, the Trump-endorsed candidate for MT-01, currently clings to a 1,160 vote lead over State Senator Albert Olszewski. Zinke, who misused his office and broke federal ethics rules during his time as Secretary of the Interior, was heavily favored to win the primary thanks to his political rapport in the state and support from Donald Trump. DDHQ estimates there are around 5-6k votes outstanding in Lincoln County. This means Olszewski has some work to do, but given that Lincoln County is adjacent to his political stronghold of Flatland County, it is too early to consider this race decided.
Upcoming Elections
| Sat June 11 | AK US House at-large Special top-four Primary |
| Tues June 14 | Maine Primary |
| ME State Senate 7 Special General | |
| Nevada Primary | |
| North Dakota Primary | |
| South Carolina Primary | |
| TX US House 34 Special General | |
| Henderson, NV Mayoral primary | |
| Reno, NV Mayoral primary | |
| North Las Vegas, NV Mayoral primary | |
| Tues June 21 | DC Primary |
| Virginia Primary | |
| Washington, DC Mayoral Primary | |
| Alabama runoff | |
| Arkansas runoff | |
| Georgia runoff | |
| Tues June 28 | Colorado Primary |
| Illinois Primary | |
| New York Primary (US Senate, Statewide Offices, State Assembly) | |
| Oklahoma Primary | |
| OK US Senate Special Dem Primary | |
| OK US Senate Special GOP Primary | |
| Utah Primary | |
| Mississippi runoff | |
| South Carolina runoff | |
| NE US House 1 Special General |