Morning Headlines
- New Hampshire’s Court Appointed Special Master proposed a least-change map, ending the months-long partisan redistricting battle in the state. Democrats and Governor Chris Sununu will claim this map as a win since it leaves both districts competitive instead of locking in a 1-1 split delegation for the decade. Democrats currently hold both NH seats, but Republicans are optimistic that they can flip at least one in 2022. New Hampshire will be the final state to pass their 2022 Congressional Map, meaning that national congressional redistricting will soon be complete. Although Democrats were optimistic about their redistricting hopes for many months, eventual maps in New York and Florida will lead the GOP to claim an overall victory and enjoy a solid house bias for another decade.
- A Michigan State Canvassing Board voted (2-2 on party lines) to remove James Craig and Perry Johnson, as well as three other GOP Candidates, from the GOP Primary ballot this summer. The two were considered co-favorites for the Michigan GOP Governor nomination, and this vote clears the way for Tudor Dixon to challenge incumbent Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer for re-election this fall. The board upheld a recommendation from the Michigan Bureau of Elections to exclude the candidates because they fell below the threshold for required signatures after considering the thousands of forgeries submitted. One Democrat also voted to remove Dixon from the ballot, since she had also submitted many forged signatures. But since she still submitted enough legal signatures to meet the required threshold, the other Democrat voted to keep Dixon on the ballot.
- Orange County incumbent Republican Congresswoman Young Kim condemned right-wing CA-40 primary challenger Greg Raths for “anti-semitic” comments at the Orange County Islamic Foundation candidate forum. Kim has spent nearly $1 Million in her primary against Raths, who has painted Kim as too moderate. Democratic candidate Asif Mahmood has spent almost $500,000 painting Raths as an overly “Trump Republican,” hoping to boost his primary chances against Kim. Kim overperformed Trump by over ten points in 2020, proving to be an electoral juggernaut who is an overwhelming favorite against Mahmood in a potential 2022 general election.
- Republican Illinois Governor Candidate Richard Irvin has begun launching attack ads against Republican State Senator Darren Bailey. Irvin attempts to tie Bailey to Illinois Democratic Governor JB Pritzker after Pritzker spent on a large ad drop painting Bailey as too conservative, hoping to boost him in the primary against Irvin. New polls show Irvin up 24%-19% over Bailey, a race that Republicans recognize will be an uphill battle but feel that Irvin would be an effective recruit in a favorable political environment to take on Pritzker.
- The leading Democratic Candidate for MO-02, Ben Samuels, chose to drop out of the Democratic Primary to challenge incumbent Republican Representative Ann Wagner. Trump carried MO-02 by 8% in 2020, meaning it would have been a seriously uphill battle for Samuels to unseat Wagner in what is expected to be a poor political environment for Democrats. His decision to withdraw from the race further highlights Democrats’ lack of confidence in their 2022 congressional hopes.
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