With 9 weeks to go until Election Day, our model displays a continuing shift towards Democratic chances in the House while the Senate moves more modestly towards Democrats as well. The big takeaway this week is that 4 House races (WA08, KS03, MN03, OH12) moved 3% or more away from the GOP as Democratic IE spending started pouring in. The generic ballot national environment … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 3, 2018
Predictions
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update August 27, 2018
As we approach the 2-month mark until Election Day 2018, the Øptimus Model remains steady at the aggregate levels for both the House and Senate. Republicans remain the strong favorites to retain control of the Senate, while Democrats are favored to take the House. With 7 Senate races in toss-up or lean territory, and the House even less solidified, the opportunity for … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update August 27, 2018
Monday Morning News And Notes
Arizona Senator John McCain passed away this weekend after a battle with cancer. Governor Doug Ducey will name a replacement, who according to state law must be a Republican, to serve until a special election is held in 2020. 525 days. That’s how long until February 3, 2020 the day that’s been announced for the Iowa Democratic Caucuses. The campaign to repeal the recent … [Read more...] about Monday Morning News And Notes
Analyzing AK & WY’s State Legislatures Post-Primary
While there are a few races that are too early/close to call in Alaska (specifically in HD-15’s Republican primary, where an R incumbent who caucuses with Democrats is down by 4 votes) the Desk is ready to cast its first ratings for Alaska and Wyoming’s state legislatures. We will update ratings accordingly should any results change after recounts and provisional ballots. AK … [Read more...] about Analyzing AK & WY’s State Legislatures Post-Primary
Decision Desk Results August 21, 2018
You can find our results for tonight's primaries here. We have a refreshed DDHQ/Øptimus legislative model out today (signup is free) and the key races to watch are: Wyoming House Pre-primary a 90% Safe R district Wyoming Senate Pre-primary a 97% Safe R district Alaska House Pre-primary a 90% Safe R district You can read the full legislative update … [Read more...] about Decision Desk Results August 21, 2018