With 50 days left until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment continued to go up for Democrats, now sitting at D+9.3, but the past week featured nearly 70 individual district polling that was often good news for Republicans. Republicans’ chances to keep the House rebounded slightly over … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018
Predictions
Forecaster and model assessments of the House and Senate
While we have our own House and Senate model, which currently give the Democrats an 80.13% chance of winning the former with 224 seats, and the Republicans an 84.77% chance of retaining the latter with 51 seats, it's always good to get a second, third, and nth opinion. So here is every public model's current assessment of both chambers along with projected seat counts where … [Read more...] about Forecaster and model assessments of the House and Senate
Senate Model Comparison: Øptimus and FiveThirtyEight’s Predictions
Earlier today, FiveThirtyEight released their much-anticipated Senate model. We thought it'd be interesting to see how the Øptimus model predictions compare to theirs. The numbers below are all based off of our 9/11 model update and FiveThirtyEight's Classic model as of this afternoon. The two models work in very different ways- and we won't get too far into that element … [Read more...] about Senate Model Comparison: Øptimus and FiveThirtyEight’s Predictions
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 10, 2018
With less than 2 months until Election Day, our model continues to shift towards Democratic control in the House while holding steady on Republican chances in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment generates most of the aggregate shift this week, with polling coming into play in individual seats. Overall, Republicans remain strong favorites to retain control of the … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 10, 2018
Analyzing Delaware’s State Legislature Post-Primary
Now that the great state of Delaware has finished their primaries, DecisionDeskHQ is able to rate their state legislatures. Though Democrats could have lost control of the State Senate back in February 2017 during a special election, they are certain to hold onto the majority in not just the upper chamber, but the lower chamber as well. Here are our ratings for both … [Read more...] about Analyzing Delaware’s State Legislature Post-Primary