Arizona’s 2nd has suffered an acute case of whiplash, going from one of the most competitive seats to a secured Republican victory in 2016, and now looking to zoom back to a comfortable Democratic win in 2018. While most of the handicappers rate this at least Leans Dem, and may move leftward before the election, this analysis will not dispute that but instead look at how a … [Read more...] about The Hot Seat: Arizona’s 2nd
Predictions
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
With just 3 weeks left until Election Day, our model is fairly confident in the outcomes of both chambers. While there is still time for change, and while great odds are not the same as a certain outcome, the Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House and Republicans are strong favorites to retain the Senate (and perhaps pick up more seats). The generic ballot national … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018
With less than 30 days left until Election Day, our model took a turn towards Republicans this week, though Democrats are still strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+7.3 this week, and fairly dire polling for Democrats in North Dakota has cut into their path to a Senate majority substantially. New FEC … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018
With 36 days remaining, our model continues to track towards Democrats in the House while holding steady for Republicans in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+8 this week but was counteracted in the House by district polling that was generally favorable for Democrats. With new FEC data on the horizon for the next couple weeks, both parties … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 24, 2018
With less than 50 days until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans for both chambers this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment receded down to D+8.7 from last week’s high of D+9.3, fueling some of that movement, while the individual district polling of the past week was a mixed bag for both parties. With 6 weeks to go, the same … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 24, 2018