As we head into the final weekend before Election Day, we're excited to reveal our gubernatorial probabilities. While we did not apply our House and Senate methodology to produce a full gubernatorial model, we wanted to release our take on where these races stood. We settled on a polling model, similar to what we use to input polling into our House and Senate models. Think of … [Read more...] about Presenting the 2018 Øptimus Gubernatorial (Polling) Model
Predictions
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 2, 2018
As it was at the beginning of the week, the model is stable in the House and moved slightly towards Republicans in the Senate since Monday. The national environment shifted from D+7.9 compared to D+7. With just 8 days left until Election Day, we're predicting a strong possibility of split chamber control, with Democrats retaking the House but unable to retake the Senate. … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update November 2, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 29, 2018
For the second straight week, the model is stable in the House and moves slightly towards Republicans in the Senate. The national environment is also stable, sitting at D+7.9 compared to D+7.8 last week. With just 8 days left until Election Day, we're predicting a strong possibility of split chamber control, with Democrats retaking the House but unable to retake the Senate. … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 29, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 22, 2018
After the big movement in the model at the end of last week due to the record-breaking fundraising quarter by Democrats, the model settles down this week. The national environment continues to creep back up for Democrats, now sitting at D+7.8, though Trump’s approval rating has curiously increased at the same time, now sitting at only a net -7%. With two weeks left until … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 22, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 18, 2018
As predicted, Q3 FEC reports shook up the race a bit, with House Democrats now overwhelming favorites to take a majority and Senate Democrats somewhat improving their standing (though Republicans are still strong favorites). The national environment begun to move back towards Democrats as well, after reaching a 2-month low of D+6.9 on Monday (it is now D+7.2). With less than 3 … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 18, 2018