As DDHQ prepares for an epic 2020 election season we are continuing to innovate how we deliver election data to our clients and the general public. For the 2019 general elections tonight we're taking another stab at the heart of election night confusion by providing turnout projections in MS, KY, and select Virginia state senate and house of delegates districts as votes are … [Read more...] about Watch Tonight’s Election Like A Pro
Predictions
The Baseline Problem
When Election Twitter explores the result of a special or regular election, comparisons to previous elections inevitably arise, as this niche world obsessed with numbers attempts to deduce what has changed, and, for the multitude of partisans involved, which side benefited from the race. Someone unfamiliar with the particularities of contests may just assume that the party … [Read more...] about The Baseline Problem
2018 Election Forecasting Simulator- Senate Update
Last week, we unveiled the beta release of our 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator. We've now enabled Senate functionality, giving you the ability to re-allocate money in the most visible races of the year. Can you concoct a scenario where Democrats would have actually been favorites to keep the Senate, or one in which Republicans have their own red wave to counter the … [Read more...] about 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator- Senate Update
What was the Democratic ceiling in the House?
When we introduced the 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator yesterday, we included several different scenarios to play around with. Today we're taking a look at one in particular, which maximizes the expected number of Democratic victories in the House. How many seats did they leave on the table? As it turns out, not all that many. Democrats were able to pick up 40 seats in … [Read more...] about What was the Democratic ceiling in the House?
Introducing the Øptimus 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator!
Though election season, Republican and Democratic strategists in national organizations like the NRCC, DCCC, Campaign Leadership Fund, and House Majority PAC spend considerable time planning out which races to allocate money into to maximize their side's chances of victory in as many races as possible. We took a look at our Congressional Election Model and wanted to create a … [Read more...] about Introducing the Øptimus 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator!