Kendra Horn's (D) stunning victory over incumbent Steve Russell (R) in Oklahoma's R+10 5th district was one of the biggest 2018 midterm upsets. Russell won each of his previous elections by over 20 points, and national Republicans never expressed concern in the district. Russell ultimately raised-and-spent under $1 million. Based on Russell's performance in 2016, their … [Read more...] about Looking Back on OK-5
Mapping
State Spotlight: Montana Senate
Montana is another key state deciding control of the Senate in this year's midterm election. Senator Jon Tester (D) is pursuing his third-term against Montana state auditor Matt Rosendale (R). Despite his deep-red state's R+11 lean, Tester is a proven commodity. After narrowly unseating incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns (R) in the 2006 Democratic wave, Tester managed an even more … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Montana Senate
State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 2
Today we'll continue our look at Minnesota's competitive House elections. We will focus now on the districts where Republicans are in serious danger, MN-2 and MN-3. Minnesota's 2nd congressional district - containing the cities of Eagan and Burnsville, south of Minneapolis - would probably be competitive even in a neutral national environment. Represented by freshman … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 2
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018
With less than 30 days left until Election Day, our model took a turn towards Republicans this week, though Democrats are still strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+7.3 this week, and fairly dire polling for Democrats in North Dakota has cut into their path to a Senate majority substantially. New FEC … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018
State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 1
Minnesota is one of the key states that will decide control of the House in this year's midterm election. And Minnesota is unique in at least one regard: this is probably the only state where Democrats could plausibly lose ground. Both MN-1 and MN-8 voted for Donald Trump by substantial margins in 2016, and the Democratic incumbents in both seats are departing to pursue other … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 1