President Donald Trump carried Michigan by less than 12,000 votes in 2016, and did so mainly on a massive shift among whites without a college degree. His performance in suburban areas, particularly those populated mostly by whites with a college degree, dipped notably from Mitt Romney's, and this held true throughout the state. He also benefited from a drop in participation … [Read more...] about Why Donald Trump Is Heading To Western Michigan Next Week (It’s Not About His Base)
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Michigan Senate 2018: Stabenow Wins a 4th Term, But It’s Close(-ish)
Continuing our look at Michigan, while the Democrats won the open Gubernatorial race there by a comfortable 10% last year, the Senatorial result was something better for Republicans. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D) was initially elected to the chamber in 2000, after representing a swingy Lansing-area seat in the House. She was reelected by increasingly large margins in 2006 and … [Read more...] about Michigan Senate 2018: Stabenow Wins a 4th Term, But It’s Close(-ish)
Michigan 2018: Democrats Fix Their Road to Lansing
After a lackluster showing throughout the region in 2014, Democrats picked up a trio of Governorships in the Great Lakes states in 2018. Two of these states (Illinois & Wisconsin) were gained by defeating Republican incumbents while one, Michigan, was an open contest. Long mentioned as a candidate for statewide office, Democrats ran Gretchen Whitmer for Governor. … [Read more...] about Michigan 2018: Democrats Fix Their Road to Lansing
The Caucus Map Shrinks in 2020 (Update- Even Further!)
As we race towards 2020, state governments and parties have been changing their calendars. But some have gone a step further, switching from caucuses to primaries. The 2016 cycle saw a total of twenty states and territories nominate in the former method, and it gave a bit of a lift to one candidate who is facing this party’s voters yet again. Bernie Sanders performed far more … [Read more...] about The Caucus Map Shrinks in 2020 (Update- Even Further!)
Over Three-Quarters of House Members Have Filed for Re-Election
Jon Prevo is tracking candidate filings for Decision Desk HQ in the run up to 2020. He took a quick glance at the data for us this week. In order to run for re-election, Congressional incumbents must file a few forms with the Federal Election Commission. The form filings this map shows are sitting incumbents of the 116th Congress as of March 6th who have filed FEC F2 forms. … [Read more...] about Over Three-Quarters of House Members Have Filed for Re-Election