As we approach the 2-month mark until Election Day 2018, the Øptimus Model remains steady at the aggregate levels for both the House and Senate. Republicans remain the strong favorites to retain control of the Senate, while Democrats are favored to take the House. With 7 Senate races in toss-up or lean territory, and the House even less solidified, the opportunity for … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update August 27, 2018
House
(Guest Post)- 2018 Profile: Ohio’s 1st District
Matt Hodges, a software engineer who studies campaign finance and election data, submits his analysis of OH-1. As he summed it up, a cracked Cincinnati may dash Democratic hopes. Overview Ohio's 1st Congressional district is located in the Southwest corner of the state. It is comprised of much of Hamilton County (Cincinnati) and Warren County. With the exception of 2009–2011, … [Read more...] about (Guest Post)- 2018 Profile: Ohio’s 1st District
House District Spotlight: Iowa-1
It's become cliche to talk about the role of midwestern whites in elevating Donald Trump to the White House. But if you were looking for a Ground Zero in midwestern whites' abandonment of the Democratic Party, you could do much worse than Iowa's first congressional district. This district - containing the mid-sized cities of Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Dubuque - is 93% … [Read more...] about House District Spotlight: Iowa-1
Analyzing AK & WY’s State Legislatures Post-Primary
While there are a few races that are too early/close to call in Alaska (specifically in HD-15’s Republican primary, where an R incumbent who caucuses with Democrats is down by 4 votes) the Desk is ready to cast its first ratings for Alaska and Wyoming’s state legislatures. We will update ratings accordingly should any results change after recounts and provisional ballots. AK … [Read more...] about Analyzing AK & WY’s State Legislatures Post-Primary
Alaska And Wyoming Primary Wrap Up
Wyoming: State Treasurer Mark Gordon defeated 5 other candidate to emerge as the GOP’s nominee for Governor. Gordon defeated national GOP donor Foster Freis, who received a late endorsement from President Donald Trump. Tuesday’s results are colored by one of the most negativity-laden campaigns in the history of Wyoming politics. Debates on the campaign trail were, at … [Read more...] about Alaska And Wyoming Primary Wrap Up