With less than 50 days until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans for both chambers this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment receded down to D+8.7 from last week’s high of D+9.3, fueling some of that movement, while the individual district polling of the past week was a mixed bag for both parties. With 6 weeks to go, the same … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 24, 2018
House
House District Spotlight: Illinois-12
Illinois' 12th congressional district - represented by Mike Bost (R) since his defeat of William Enyart (D) in 2014 - is another heavily white midwestern district that swung hard towards Donald Trump in 2016. Prior to Trump, some version of this district has voted for every Democratic Presidential candidate since at least Bill Clinton. After supporting Obama by 2 points over … [Read more...] about House District Spotlight: Illinois-12
A Look At 2018 Primary Season Highlights And What They May Mean For November
Last week marked the end of the 2018 primary season. We began our results coverage the first week of March in Texas and finished last Thursday in NY. As part of our weekly newsletter (which you receive when you sign up for access to our results and the 0ptimus Forecast Model here) DDHQ Executive Director Brandon Finnigan took a look back at some of the key races that may … [Read more...] about A Look At 2018 Primary Season Highlights And What They May Mean For November
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018
With 50 days left until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment continued to go up for Democrats, now sitting at D+9.3, but the past week featured nearly 70 individual district polling that was often good news for Republicans. Republicans’ chances to keep the House rebounded slightly over … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018
Washington’s 5th District – Primary Results
Washington's 5th Congressional District takes up the eastern end of the state. It starts at the Canadian borders, runs down to include the city of Spokane, and ends touching the Oregon border: While the district certainly takes in many rural areas, roughly 80% of the votes cast there come from Spokane County (the largest city in the district having the same name) and … [Read more...] about Washington’s 5th District – Primary Results