With less than 30 days left until Election Day, our model took a turn towards Republicans this week, though Democrats are still strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+7.3 this week, and fairly dire polling for Democrats in North Dakota has cut into their path to a Senate majority substantially. New FEC … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018
House
State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 1
Minnesota is one of the key states that will decide control of the House in this year's midterm election. And Minnesota is unique in at least one regard: this is probably the only state where Democrats could plausibly lose ground. Both MN-1 and MN-8 voted for Donald Trump by substantial margins in 2016, and the Democratic incumbents in both seats are departing to pursue other … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 1
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018
With 36 days remaining, our model continues to track towards Democrats in the House while holding steady for Republicans in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+8 this week but was counteracted in the House by district polling that was generally favorable for Democrats. With new FEC data on the horizon for the next couple weeks, both parties … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018
State Spotlight: Michigan, From 2016 to Today
Donald Trump's narrow victory in Michigan was one of election night 2016's bigger surprises. Despite its perennial battleground status, Michigan had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Few 2016 forecasters thought Donald Trump was likely to break the streak. He proved many of them wrong, when his deep rural support - combined with … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Michigan, From 2016 to Today
Voter Registration Changes in Pennsylvania and the 2018 midterms
Those long-time readers of the Desk know of my special affinity (some would call it an obsession) with the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Throughout 2015 and 2016, I tracked voter registration changes as it finally ceased its long role as "Lucy's Football" for the GOP, and continued to keep an eye on figures well beyond that fateful November. So, what do the numbers show, so far … [Read more...] about Voter Registration Changes in Pennsylvania and the 2018 midterms