As predicted, Q3 FEC reports shook up the race a bit, with House Democrats now overwhelming favorites to take a majority and Senate Democrats somewhat improving their standing (though Republicans are still strong favorites). The national environment begun to move back towards Democrats as well, after reaching a 2-month low of D+6.9 on Monday (it is now D+7.2). With less than 3 … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 18, 2018
House
The Hot Seat: Arizona’s 2nd
Arizona’s 2nd has suffered an acute case of whiplash, going from one of the most competitive seats to a secured Republican victory in 2016, and now looking to zoom back to a comfortable Democratic win in 2018. While most of the handicappers rate this at least Leans Dem, and may move leftward before the election, this analysis will not dispute that but instead look at how a … [Read more...] about The Hot Seat: Arizona’s 2nd
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
With just 3 weeks left until Election Day, our model is fairly confident in the outcomes of both chambers. While there is still time for change, and while great odds are not the same as a certain outcome, the Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House and Republicans are strong favorites to retain the Senate (and perhaps pick up more seats). The generic ballot national … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 2
Today we'll continue our look at Minnesota's competitive House elections. We will focus now on the districts where Republicans are in serious danger, MN-2 and MN-3. Minnesota's 2nd congressional district - containing the cities of Eagan and Burnsville, south of Minneapolis - would probably be competitive even in a neutral national environment. Represented by freshman … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 2
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018
With less than 30 days left until Election Day, our model took a turn towards Republicans this week, though Democrats are still strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+7.3 this week, and fairly dire polling for Democrats in North Dakota has cut into their path to a Senate majority substantially. New FEC … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018