With $1.75 billion spent in the House this cycle, I looked at some of the most extreme stats that popped out at me, from high spenders to the most efficient campaigns. First up is wine distributor David Trone in Maryland’s 6th, who outspent his opponent by $15.9 million, more than the 62 cheapest House races combined. After spending $12 million in 2016 just to lose in a … [Read more...] about A Look at Money in the Midterms
House
What was the Democratic ceiling in the House?
When we introduced the 2018 Election Forecasting Simulator yesterday, we included several different scenarios to play around with. Today we're taking a look at one in particular, which maximizes the expected number of Democratic victories in the House. How many seats did they leave on the table? As it turns out, not all that many. Democrats were able to pick up 40 seats in … [Read more...] about What was the Democratic ceiling in the House?
2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
UPDATE: The post below has been updated to reflect the Democratic flip of CA-21 and the results of the Mississippi special election. It is now up-to-date as of November 29th. Introduction The following document presents preliminary analysis of the performance of the Øptimus House and Senate models, as well as how they compare to other forecasting models and ratings. Overall, … [Read more...] about 2018 Midterm Forecasting model analysis- How well did we do?
RACE CALL RETRACTION IN CA-21
Decision Desk HQ is retracting the call we made in the CA-21 race. On election night we called the race for incumbent Congressman David Valadao over Democratic challenger T.J. Cox. Valadao finished election night with an 8% lead over Cox. As the mail in votes came in over the last two weeks, that lead has shrunk to the point we can no longer stand by our call. To give you an … [Read more...] about RACE CALL RETRACTION IN CA-21
Uncalled Races Update
As of this writing, DDHQ has not called four House contests: CALIFORNIA-39 GEORGIA-07 TEXAS-23 UTAH-04 California's 39th remains uncalled due to the outstanding vote count. Republican Young Kim sported a lead on election night, but that has evaporated entirely as the mail-in ballot count stretched into its second week. She now narrowly trails Democratic candidate … [Read more...] about Uncalled Races Update