Iowa was among the most closely watched states during the 2018 midterms, following Donald Trump's 10-point victory in this once solidly Democratic state. Heavily white midwestern states like Iowa once composed the Democratic "Blue Wall," and Democrats' chances to unseat Trump in 2020 hinge on their ability to get states like Iowa back into their column. Democrats' most … [Read more...] about Reflections on the Iowa 2018 Midterms
House
Looking Back on OK-5
Kendra Horn's (D) stunning victory over incumbent Steve Russell (R) in Oklahoma's R+10 5th district was one of the biggest 2018 midterm upsets. Russell won each of his previous elections by over 20 points, and national Republicans never expressed concern in the district. Russell ultimately raised-and-spent under $1 million. Based on Russell's performance in 2016, their … [Read more...] about Looking Back on OK-5
A DIME’s Worth of Moderation
The clash between ideological sides within each party is often focused on the direction of where to move the party, but some energy focuses on electability. Moderates claim that they appeal to the center and scoop up more voters, while those that are more ideologically homogenous claim that they alone excite new voters, as their positions are the true popular ones. There is an … [Read more...] about A DIME’s Worth of Moderation
Open Seat Watch: GA-07
Each election cycle brings a new round of Congressional retirements, and this time around is looking to be no different. Last week, we had an early announcement, from Rep. Rob Woodall (R) of Georgia's 7th District. Initially elected to the House in 2010, Woodall won by comfortable margins until last year. The Atlanta suburbs - where his district is based - have been moving … [Read more...] about Open Seat Watch: GA-07
Forty-five House Seats Decided by Five Points or Less
Wave elections are remembered for the sheer number of seats flipped and of course the upsets, but the volume of close contests in them can be useful when looking ahead to the next cycle. Forty-five House seats were decided by margins of five or less, almost all of them held by Republicans. Republicans held onto twenty-four of them and lost twenty and control of the House … [Read more...] about Forty-five House Seats Decided by Five Points or Less