The strength of education polarization broke historical precedent in 2022 US House races, overpowering “down-ballot lag,” which occurs when changes in partisan patterns appear first at the presidential level, to drive continued realignment during this midterm cycle. Education polarization drove rapid and notable realignment between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections, and … [Read more...] about Roe Overturn Led to Historic Realignment in 2022 Midterms
Analysis
Chicago Mayor Election: How Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson Can Win Tuesday’s Runoff
With the general election only one day away, moderate Paul Vallas and progressive Brandon Johnson are locked in a dead heat. After the incumbent mayor, Lori Lightfoot, was eliminated in February’s Top-Two primary, Vallas and Johnson have had the stage to themselves as they try to appeal to a broader coalition of voters. While he did not come close to winning a majority of the … [Read more...] about Chicago Mayor Election: How Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson Can Win Tuesday’s Runoff
Abortion, Voting Rights, And The Wisconsin State Supreme Court—How Education Polarization is Starting to Help Democrats Too
For the past few years, national Democrats have publicly bemoaned how increased education polarization has given Republicans a significant structural advantage in some governing bodies. As white voters without a bachelor’s degree in the Rust Belt shifted to the right, Republicans enjoyed a substantial positive bias in the Electoral College in 2016 and 2020 that seems likely to … [Read more...] about Abortion, Voting Rights, And The Wisconsin State Supreme Court—How Education Polarization is Starting to Help Democrats Too
February 28th First Round Chicago Mayor Election Preview
On February 28th, Lori Lightfoot will compete against eight challengers in the first round of Chicago’s 2023 mayoral election. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, the two top candidates from the first round will compete in a decisive runoff election on April 4th. With Lightfoot struggling to keep her approval rating afloat, she is exceptionally unlikely to win a … [Read more...] about February 28th First Round Chicago Mayor Election Preview
Former SC Governor Nikki Haley First to Challenge Trump for 2024 GOP Nomination
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley officially launched her campaign for President of the United States on Wednesday morning with an event in her home city of Charleston, South Carolina. Haley is the first major candidate to announce she will compete against former President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024. Haley was raised as a Sikh by her Indian … [Read more...] about Former SC Governor Nikki Haley First to Challenge Trump for 2024 GOP Nomination