Some thoughts on tonight’s South Carolina Democratic Primary results, starting with… Joe Biden Is Legitimately Back Just as last week’s Nevada Caucuses were unspinnable, so are these results for Joe Biden. The former Vice President has won, and won by a margin that is undeniable. What the final margin closes at is still unclear, but for Biden to win by so much … [Read more...] about South Carolina Results: Gamechanger
Analysis
Joe Biden’s Electability Argument Vs. Bernie Sanders’ Primary Results
Ask a Joe Biden supporter why they are supporting Joe Biden. Many of them will talk about his time as Vice President, that he has the right experience, or that he really cares about the people of America. When presented with the argument that other candidates have similar experience, and also care about Americans, they will usually pivot right to the underlining factor of … [Read more...] about Joe Biden’s Electability Argument Vs. Bernie Sanders’ Primary Results
Nevada Caucuses: What We Learned
Saturday saw the first results come in of the Democratic Caucuses come in. While we don’t yet have complete figures, or full delegate allocations, we do have some things we learned from the results tonight. Sanders Didn’t Underperform Having final numbers would be good here, if only so we could truly estimate the size of the win versus the polls, but what is … [Read more...] about Nevada Caucuses: What We Learned
Sanders Is Surging; Is It Over?
On Tuesday, five national Democratic Primary polls were released, all showing one thing - a big Bernie Sanders lead. Despite the fact Sanders is only on 29% per the LeanTossup National Average, he is in the driver’s seat of the primary, forecast for 1816 delegates per the LeanTossup model. And while the model still believes no candidate getting a majority is the likeliest … [Read more...] about Sanders Is Surging; Is It Over?
Chaos Is The Current Frontrunner In The Democratic Primary And It’s Not Looking To Lose Its Lead Anytime Soon
When I started building the LeanTossup Democratic Primary model for our site in the spring of 2019, I decided to add a pie chart to show the odds that no candidate would win a majority of pledged delegates (a Contested Convention). I asked twitter to vote in a poll on their preferred labels for the “Odds of a Contested Convention” graph; either “Yes/No” or “Everything is … [Read more...] about Chaos Is The Current Frontrunner In The Democratic Primary And It’s Not Looking To Lose Its Lead Anytime Soon