Donald Trump has had a rough past couple of weeks, after months of the COVID-19 pandemic. To put it mildly, Trump is in some big trouble. In my Presidential Forecast, Trump's chance of winning has dropped by 6% down to 28.3%. This is by no terms out of it, roughly the odds the dealer busts in a game of blackjack. His chances have been hit hard due his slipping position in swing … [Read more...] about The Trump Slump Continues
Analysis
Post Protest Polling Favors Joe Biden
Here are the results of the high quality, live caller national polls, that have been released in the two weeks since news of the death of George Floyd at the hands of police in Minneapolis, MN and the nationwide protests against racism and police brutality: Joe Biden +14% (CNN/SSRS), 11% Biden lead (Monmouth), and a pair of 7% leads (NBC/WSJ and NPR/Marist). Morning Consult is … [Read more...] about Post Protest Polling Favors Joe Biden
Maryland’s First All Mail-In Election Goes To Overtime In Baltimore Mayoral Primary
One of the local contests we have focused on here at DDHQ is the Mayoral election in my own Baltimore backyard. Incumbent Mayor Jack Young has already conceded the Democratic primary, failing to crack even the top three. Mary Miller is a very distant third and has been mathematically eliminated. That leaves just two candidates, former Mayor Sheila Dixon, who ran and narrowly … [Read more...] about Maryland’s First All Mail-In Election Goes To Overtime In Baltimore Mayoral Primary
Donald Trump Should Forget Texas
Politics Twitter was shocked last week to see a Quinnipiac poll of Texas, at State Trump won 9 points in 2016, as a tossup, with a one point Trump lead. While many people couldn’t believe the result, it’s right in line with what the LeanTossup model has in Texas, and confirms our broader theory of the election: Biden has drawn back some amount of white non-College voters back … [Read more...] about Donald Trump Should Forget Texas
Joe Biden’s Increasing Support From Hispanic Voters
After much talk of Joe Biden's campaign being unable to get much traction with Hispanic voters - and consequently polls showing him doing somewhere between mildly and much worse with Hispanics than Hillary Clinton did - Biden seems to have figured out his Hispanic problems, and he's done so in a big way. Per three recent National polls - conducted by Optimus, YouGov, and the … [Read more...] about Joe Biden’s Increasing Support From Hispanic Voters