Decision Desk HQ

Elections Returns, Analysis and Projections

2020 President

Good Bye Iowa, Hello New Hampshire: Sanders Leading, Pete Surging, Biden Fading

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Despite the inconclusive final results of the Iowa Caucus, the train keeps rolling on, with Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary. Bernie Sanders is the clear favorite, leading every poll released this week by at least 4%, with Monmouth showing a 24%-20% race between Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, and Emerson and Suffolk’s most recent tracking poll data showing 10%, and 6%, leads … [Read more...] about Good Bye Iowa, Hello New Hampshire: Sanders Leading, Pete Surging, Biden Fading

The IA Democratic Caucus…It’s A Bit Different Than A Regular Election

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Since the caucus process is a bit different, to say the least, from a regular primary, we wanted to take a minute to rundown how we anticipate the evening going and how we’ll be handling the results. Unlike a primary or general election, a caucus is a privately organized and run event by the Iowa Democratic party. They will be providing the results to us on a rolling basis … [Read more...] about The IA Democratic Caucus…It’s A Bit Different Than A Regular Election

A Crowded Field Meets a Front Loaded Primary

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In a field as incredibly crowded as the one Democrats must pick from in less than a year, coming in third or fourth in Iowa, with the money that is surely going to be raised over the next few months, doesn't seem to carry as much weight as it may have in previous elections. A candidate who proves a dud in Iowa may do well in New Hampshire, or have a different strategy and kick … [Read more...] about A Crowded Field Meets a Front Loaded Primary

Why Donald Trump Is Heading To Western Michigan Next Week (It’s Not About His Base)

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President Donald Trump carried Michigan by less than 12,000 votes in 2016, and did so mainly on a massive shift among whites without a college degree. His performance in suburban areas, particularly those populated mostly by whites with a college degree, dipped notably from Mitt Romney's, and this held true throughout the state. He also benefited from a drop in participation … [Read more...] about Why Donald Trump Is Heading To Western Michigan Next Week (It’s Not About His Base)