California’s unique “top-two” primary system for congressional elections sets it apart from most states. In this system, all candidates compete in a single primary, regardless of party affiliation, with the two highest vote-getters advancing to the general election. This approach contrasts with the more common practice of holding separate Democratic and Republican primaries, followed by a general election between the winners of each party’s primary.
California’s 16th Congressional District is based in Silicon Valley, encompassing parts of San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, including Half Moon Bay, Palo Alto, and Los Gatos, is poised to present a unique situation regarding the state’s primary system. The district heavily favors Democrats (President Joe Biden won over 75% of the vote in 2020), so the partisan alignment of the next representative elected this November is not in question. That said, the race between two Democrats for the second spot in the CA-16 general election this November has taken an exceptionally improbable turn. After counting over 182k votes, Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian and Assemblyman Evan Low are tied for second place with exactly 30,249 votes each, thanks to a recent single vote added by San Mateo County. Democratic Businessman Sam Liccardo, who has already secured 38,489 votes, is guaranteed to advance to the general election in November.
According to the state’s Secretary of State website, both San Mateo and Santa Clara counties are fully reported and have zero votes outstanding. State law requires counties to submit official reports with all votes counted by April 5th, and results will be certified by the CA Secretary of State by April 12th.
If the race for second place stays tied, Liccardo will advance to the second round in November along with both Simitian and Low, according to state law. Since California adopted its nonpartisan primary system in 2012, there is no precedent for a three-way congressional race in the state. In all probability, the number of votes cast for Low and Simitian were not exactly identical, and a recount would result in a slight change to the final result that would break the tie. Recounts in California are not automatic, but any of the three candidates (Liccardo, Simitian, and Low) could ask for a recount that would likely break the tie between Simitian and Low.
It is almost certainly in at least one candidate’s best interest to request a recount to optimize their chances of winning the general election in November. The probability that a recount would leave each candidate’s likelihood of victory completely unchanged is exceedingly low. Therefore, one of the candidates – Low, Simitian, or Liccardo – should rationally conclude that requesting a recount is the most strategic course of action to maximize their prospects of winning the November election and becoming a member of Congress. According to state law, any voter can request a recount, and depending on how one reads the state law, there may be a low probability of the requester being responsible for the costs (due to the near-certainty of the recount changing the outcome). This would create a strong incentive for either Low, Simitian, or Liccardo to take action.
For Low and Simitian, requesting a recount offers a 50% chance of facing Liccardo alone in the general election, potentially increasing their individual chances of winning compared to a three-way race. However, they may not request a recount if they believe their chances of winning a three-way race are at least half as good as their chances in a head-to-head matchup against Liccardo.
On the other hand, Liccardo might prefer a three-way race if he believes Low and Simitian would split votes and draw from each other, increasing his chances of victory compared to a direct contest against either candidate alone. In this case, Liccardo would be less likely to request a recount, and it would be better for Low or Simitian to request the recount.
Ultimately, the decision to request a recount depends on each candidate’s assessment of their chances in various scenarios. With the deadline for requesting a recount falling between April 5th and April 10th, the coming days will be crucial in determining the final shape of the general election in California’s 16th Congressional District.
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