North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum announced his candidacy for the GOP Nomination in the Wall Street Journal on June 7th, joining the growing list of candidates opposing Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican Nomination. Burgum spent the majority of his life in the private sector, building a software company he sold to Microsoft for over a billion dollars in 2001. Burgum has served as Governor of North Dakota for over six years, winning landslide General Elections in both 2016 and 2020.
Burgum’s preferred policies and rhetoric break from most national Republicans at times, allowing him to pave a path as a more unique Republican. Although he spent most of his gubernatorial tenure cuffed by the conservative Republican supermajority in the State Legislature, he pushed for some distinctive policies during his lengthy tenure. Burgum’s key brainchild was to lead North Dakota to become a carbon-neutral state by 2023, focusing more on carbon capture and sequestration than cutting energy production.
While Burgum is an extreme underdog to win the GOP nomination, currently polling at 0% in Morning Consult’s 2024 GOP Primary Election tracking poll. However, Burgum’s status as a self-made billionaire makes him relevant. He has an unlimited amount of cash to contribute to his presidential campaign and could appeal to Republican voters as someone who will pursue productive policy goals rather than acting as a puppet controlled by lobbyists or special interests. Burgum can use his robust war chest to build national name recognition and boost his polling to the required 1% needed to participate in the 2024 Republican Presidential Debates. He will also need to earn donations from 40,000 unique Americans, which could prove the harder requirement to satisfy.
Strengths
Reagan Republicans
Burgum is running as the “stolid candidate for business and technology,” aiming to appeal to the traditional Republican establishment. He concentrated on cutting taxes during his tenure as Governor of North Dakota and will bring classic principles of fiscal conservatism to the campaign trail.
Weaknesses
Populist Right
While Populist Right voters seek culture-war fighters, Burgum tends to govern more quietly and stays out of the headlines. A recent Burgum profile was concentrated on his apparent apathy for culture war issues, and his background as a Stanford-educated tech executive will not appeal to these voters either.
Social Moderates
Although Burgum is not immersed in culture war politics, he may struggle to explain his conservative record to true moderate voters. Burgum backed a strict abortion ban in North Dakota, banning all procedures occurring after six weeks (without exceptions for rape or incest). Given that Burgum is not a true moderate, these anti-Trump voters are more likely to support Trump’s top challenger than Burgum.
Only Trump
Trump loyalists certainly won’t leave their favored candidate for Doug Burgum, who has little national name recognition. If Trump somehow slips out of the running, however, Burgum could have a stronger chance with these voters than others, given he does not have a negative personal relationship with Trump. If anything, preserving his relationship with Trump could be important to Burgum since it keeps options open for a cabinet position if the former President can win back the White House.
The Evangelical Right
Burgum has pushed back in the past against anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, including a resolution passed by members of his own state party in 2020. And in March 2023, he vetoed a bill aiming to limit pronouns and bathroom use that included “concerning language.” It would be a big change for Burgum if he attempted to court the Evangelical Right, who have a plethora of options in Trump, Mike Pence, and Tim Scott anyway.
Decision Desk HQ is profiling each GOP presidential candidate and where their strengths and weaknesses are within the Republican primary coalition. You can read about the 5 Groups of GOP Voters here or see the previous profiles below: