In the 2012 Presidential Election, Democrat Barack Obama decisively defeated Republican Mitt Romney. Obama won 332 electoral votes and the national Presidential popular vote by nearly 4%. Despite this crushing victory, Obama headed into his second term in office without a majority in the US House. House Republicans lost the popular vote by 1% but still won a 234-201 majority in … [Read more...] about The US House Was Biased Toward Democrats in 2022: Why Republicans Are Developing a Geography Problem
A Shifting Democratic Coalition: Keys to the 2022 Georgia Senate Runoff
For the second consecutive election cycle, Democrat Raphael Warnock will compete in a runoff for a Georgia Senate seat. Warnock won a plurality of the vote over the Republican nominee, Herschel Walker, but fell short of the 50% threshold needed to win the seat without a runoff. This time, the runoff will not decide the control of the Senate but is still essential for Democrats … [Read more...] about A Shifting Democratic Coalition: Keys to the 2022 Georgia Senate Runoff
How Will the Death of Roe Affect Partisan Realignment in the 2022 Midterms?
Through the majority of the 2022 midterm election cycle, the Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson (overturning the longstanding precedent of Roe v. Wade) has dominated headlines and analysis. Although Democrats enjoyed a strong late summer bump, ostensibly fueled by the decision, GOP candidates have substantially gained in polling completed throughout October, in the … [Read more...] about How Will the Death of Roe Affect Partisan Realignment in the 2022 Midterms?
Will the 2022 Midterms Really Be a Failure for the GOP?
Just six months ago, national Republicans were in a tremendous position to achieve robust gains in the House and the Senate in this upcoming election cycle. First and foremost, many Republicans considered it all but certain that they would flip the House and Senate in 2022, given their comfortable lead in generic ballot polling and President Joe Biden's underwater approval … [Read more...] about Will the 2022 Midterms Really Be a Failure for the GOP?
Roe Overturn Fuels Democrat Success in Special Elections, but Don’t Read Too Much Into It for November
There’s no debate about whether or not the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has motivated Democratic voters. Based on the evidence of four special elections since June 23rd, it’s clear it has. The bigger question is, will it be enough to offset President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings and mute the expected red wave come November? To answer that question, we … [Read more...] about Roe Overturn Fuels Democrat Success in Special Elections, but Don’t Read Too Much Into It for November