With 36 days remaining, our model continues to track towards Democrats in the House while holding steady for Republicans in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+8 this week but was counteracted in the House by district polling that was generally favorable for Democrats. With new FEC data on the horizon for the next couple weeks, both parties … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 1, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 24, 2018
With less than 50 days until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans for both chambers this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment receded down to D+8.7 from last week’s high of D+9.3, fueling some of that movement, while the individual district polling of the past week was a mixed bag for both parties. With 6 weeks to go, the same … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 24, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018
With 50 days left until Election Day, our model moves slightly towards Republicans this week in the aggregate. The generic ballot national environment continued to go up for Democrats, now sitting at D+9.3, but the past week featured nearly 70 individual district polling that was often good news for Republicans. Republicans’ chances to keep the House rebounded slightly over … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 17, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 10, 2018
With less than 2 months until Election Day, our model continues to shift towards Democratic control in the House while holding steady on Republican chances in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment generates most of the aggregate shift this week, with polling coming into play in individual seats. Overall, Republicans remain strong favorites to retain control of the … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 10, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 3, 2018
With 9 weeks to go until Election Day, our model displays a continuing shift towards Democratic chances in the House while the Senate moves more modestly towards Democrats as well. The big takeaway this week is that 4 House races (WA08, KS03, MN03, OH12) moved 3% or more away from the GOP as Democratic IE spending started pouring in. The generic ballot national environment … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update September 3, 2018