For the second straight week, the model is stable in the House and moves slightly towards Republicans in the Senate. The national environment is also stable, sitting at D+7.9 compared to D+7.8 last week. With just 8 days left until Election Day, we're predicting a strong possibility of split chamber control, with Democrats retaking the House but unable to retake the Senate. … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 29, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 22, 2018
After the big movement in the model at the end of last week due to the record-breaking fundraising quarter by Democrats, the model settles down this week. The national environment continues to creep back up for Democrats, now sitting at D+7.8, though Trump’s approval rating has curiously increased at the same time, now sitting at only a net -7%. With two weeks left until … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 22, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 18, 2018
As predicted, Q3 FEC reports shook up the race a bit, with House Democrats now overwhelming favorites to take a majority and Senate Democrats somewhat improving their standing (though Republicans are still strong favorites). The national environment begun to move back towards Democrats as well, after reaching a 2-month low of D+6.9 on Monday (it is now D+7.2). With less than 3 … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 18, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
With just 3 weeks left until Election Day, our model is fairly confident in the outcomes of both chambers. While there is still time for change, and while great odds are not the same as a certain outcome, the Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House and Republicans are strong favorites to retain the Senate (and perhaps pick up more seats). The generic ballot national … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 15, 2018
Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018
With less than 30 days left until Election Day, our model took a turn towards Republicans this week, though Democrats are still strong favorites to retake the House of Representatives. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+7.3 this week, and fairly dire polling for Democrats in North Dakota has cut into their path to a Senate majority substantially. New FEC … [Read more...] about Øptimus Legislative Model: Update October 8, 2018