Whenever there is a new poll of Texas released, there are a ton of hot takes on Twitter. Old believers of Texas as the great blue whale for the Democrats move to dismiss the poll, saying that Texas has looked good for Democrats in the past, but that they just can’t seem to pull it off. There are others who say that the numbers are real, and are a result of inevitable … [Read more...] about Texas Presidential Polling…The Devil Is In The Crosstabs
Donald Trump Should Forget Texas
Politics Twitter was shocked last week to see a Quinnipiac poll of Texas, at State Trump won 9 points in 2016, as a tossup, with a one point Trump lead. While many people couldn’t believe the result, it’s right in line with what the LeanTossup model has in Texas, and confirms our broader theory of the election: Biden has drawn back some amount of white non-College voters back … [Read more...] about Donald Trump Should Forget Texas
Why Likely Voter Screens Might Not Save Donald Trump’s Election Chances
While we are still more than 6 months away from the Presidential Election, only one thing is very clear: Joe Biden currently has a wide lead against Donald Trump. While this is true nationally and in key swing states, it is very clear that Biden is performing better than Clinton across the board with almost every key constituency. One point many experts highlight, that could … [Read more...] about Why Likely Voter Screens Might Not Save Donald Trump’s Election Chances
Maybe Biden Can Actually Win *More* White Working Class Voters
After the 2016, many different media narratives came from the (somewhat) unpredictable results of election night. Some people believed the Democrats lost because Clinton was deeply unpopular, and could not connect to average voters. Some people believed that Trump had unlocked a populist core in America, which he could ride to power indefinitely. Others (like myself) believed … [Read more...] about Maybe Biden Can Actually Win *More* White Working Class Voters
Joe Biden’s Electability Argument Vs. Bernie Sanders’ Primary Results
Ask a Joe Biden supporter why they are supporting Joe Biden. Many of them will talk about his time as Vice President, that he has the right experience, or that he really cares about the people of America. When presented with the argument that other candidates have similar experience, and also care about Americans, they will usually pivot right to the underlining factor of … [Read more...] about Joe Biden’s Electability Argument Vs. Bernie Sanders’ Primary Results