Minnesota is one of the key states that will decide control of the House in this year's midterm election. And Minnesota is unique in at least one regard: this is probably the only state where Democrats could plausibly lose ground. Both MN-1 and MN-8 voted for Donald Trump by substantial margins in 2016, and the Democratic incumbents in both seats are departing to pursue other … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Minnesota, From 2012 to Today, Pt. 1
State Spotlight: Michigan, From 2016 to Today
Donald Trump's narrow victory in Michigan was one of election night 2016's bigger surprises. Despite its perennial battleground status, Michigan had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Few 2016 forecasters thought Donald Trump was likely to break the streak. He proved many of them wrong, when his deep rural support - combined with … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: Michigan, From 2016 to Today
House District Spotlight: Illinois-12
Illinois' 12th congressional district - represented by Mike Bost (R) since his defeat of William Enyart (D) in 2014 - is another heavily white midwestern district that swung hard towards Donald Trump in 2016. Prior to Trump, some version of this district has voted for every Democratic Presidential candidate since at least Bill Clinton. After supporting Obama by 2 points over … [Read more...] about House District Spotlight: Illinois-12
State Spotlight: The Alabama 2017 Special Election
Doug Jones' (D) victory over Roy Moore (R) was one of the most remarkable election upsets of the past decade. Alabama - with an R+14 partisan lean - is one of the most staunchly Republican states in the nation. Prior to Doug Jones, a Democrat had not won statewide office in Alabama since 2006, when Jim Folsom Jr. (D) was narrowly elected lieutenant governor by defeating Luther … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: The Alabama 2017 Special Election
State Spotlight: A Look Back at Missouri 2012
Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill's (D) race against state attorney general Josh Hawley (R) is one of the key races that will decide control of the Senate in this November's midterm election. Despite Missouri's steady march to the right, McCaskill has persisted, serving as state auditor from 1998 until 2006, when she narrowly defeated Sen. Jim Talent (R) in the 2006 Democratic … [Read more...] about State Spotlight: A Look Back at Missouri 2012