On Tuesday, five national Democratic Primary polls were released, all showing one thing - a big Bernie Sanders lead. Despite the fact Sanders is only on 29% per the LeanTossup National Average, he is in the driver’s seat of the primary, forecast for 1816 delegates per the LeanTossup model. And while the model still believes no candidate getting a majority is the likeliest … [Read more...] about Sanders Is Surging; Is It Over?
Good Bye Iowa, Hello New Hampshire: Sanders Leading, Pete Surging, Biden Fading
Despite the inconclusive final results of the Iowa Caucus, the train keeps rolling on, with Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary. Bernie Sanders is the clear favorite, leading every poll released this week by at least 4%, with Monmouth showing a 24%-20% race between Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, and Emerson and Suffolk’s most recent tracking poll data showing 10%, and 6%, leads … [Read more...] about Good Bye Iowa, Hello New Hampshire: Sanders Leading, Pete Surging, Biden Fading
UK Election: The Disunited Kingdom
While the story of the UK Election is mostly in the results in England and Wales, the reason Boris Johnson has the majority he now has, the results in Scotland and Northern Ireland don’t match the national trend. And, perhaps more importantly, they may signal the end of the United Kingdom as it currently sits. We have to start with Scotland, and in doing so, appreciate that … [Read more...] about UK Election: The Disunited Kingdom
UK Election Postmortem: The Red Wall Broke
The British Conservatives won the 2019 UK election, achieving the majority Boris Johnson needs to continue in office and break the deadlock that consumed British governance in 2019. And they did so in a way that has a ton more consequences than just this Parliament. The Conservatives suffered 7 losses in Scotland, 2 to the Lib Dems, and 1 (Putney) to Labour. Given that, they … [Read more...] about UK Election Postmortem: The Red Wall Broke
UK Election: Takeaways From The Weekend’s Polling
There's been a rush of UK polling this weekend, as pollsters get polls out on the final weekend before voters go to the polls. There are plenty of takeaways from the data, but here are 5 main takeaways: The Labour Squeeze Has Stopped One of the arguments made in favour of the Labour Party's chance in this election was the fact that in 2017, Labour … [Read more...] about UK Election: Takeaways From The Weekend’s Polling