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Evan Scrimshaw

Progressive Challengers Build Potentially Primary Winning Coalitions In KY And NY

June 22, 2020 by Evan Scrimshaw

election results

There are two Democratic primary races voting on June 23rd where the battle seems familiar but is being fought on a new paradigm. In both New York's 16th and the Kentucky Senate Primary, there is what looks to be a fairly conventional left versus establishment election happening, but in both places the primaries are more interesting than that. In both cases because the left's … [Read more...] about Progressive Challengers Build Potentially Primary Winning Coalitions In KY And NY

Post Protest Polling Favors Joe Biden

June 9, 2020 by Evan Scrimshaw

Here are the results of the high quality, live caller national polls, that have been released in the two weeks since news of the death of George Floyd at the hands of police in Minneapolis, MN  and the nationwide protests against racism and police brutality: Joe Biden +14% (CNN/SSRS), 11% Biden lead (Monmouth), and a pair of 7% leads (NBC/WSJ and NPR/Marist). Morning Consult is … [Read more...] about Post Protest Polling Favors Joe Biden

Joe Biden’s Increasing Support From Hispanic Voters

June 1, 2020 by Evan Scrimshaw

After much talk of Joe Biden's campaign being unable to get much traction with Hispanic voters - and consequently polls showing him doing somewhere between mildly and much worse with Hispanics than Hillary Clinton did - Biden seems to have figured out his Hispanic problems, and he's done so in a big way. Per three recent National polls - conducted by Optimus, YouGov, and the … [Read more...] about Joe Biden’s Increasing Support From Hispanic Voters

What International Elections Tell Us About A Poll Tightening In The US This Fall

May 26, 2020 by Evan Scrimshaw

Probably the biggest question in American politics right now is whether, and how much, the polls may tighten as we get closer to voting day on November 3rd. According to the LeanTossup models, the GOP are substantial underdogs in all three of the Presidency, Senate, and House, but that is based on where the polls are now. If the polls tighten, the Model odds will do the same. … [Read more...] about What International Elections Tell Us About A Poll Tightening In The US This Fall

Swing State Polling Shows Trump Is Losing Badly

May 22, 2020 by Evan Scrimshaw

A series of six polls released on Thursday show Joe Biden ahead in every state, with swings to him from Hillary Clinton's 2016 performance ranging from 3% in Florida to 11% in Wisconsin. And, fundamentally, the election is over if this happens. How likely it is to happen is an entirely separate and distinct question which is up for debate, but nobody should be in any doubt … [Read more...] about Swing State Polling Shows Trump Is Losing Badly

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