After the passing of Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Friday night, the fight for the Senate has reemerged as a key to this fall. Democrats are clearly taking the battle seriously, having raised $160M for various campaigns through Act Blue, their fundraising/donations service for campaigns and committees in the 72 hours since the news of the passing was made public. For the GOP, the … [Read more...] about The Supreme Court Vacancy Makes Holding The Senate A Much Harder Job For Republicans
The Race For Cash Doesn’t Point To A Tightening Race
One of the metrics by which one can measure race competitiveness is money - how much candidates are raising, and where people are spending. A bunch of recent stories show the problems for the GOP, and why any tightening narrative should be treated with caution. Let's start with the Presidential race, where dual stories around Joe Biden's and Donald Trump's finances have … [Read more...] about The Race For Cash Doesn’t Point To A Tightening Race
Six Notable Takeaways From The Decision Desk HQ/0ptimus Model
With both party conventions now in the books, it is a good time to look at where we are in terms of the election, and what is likely to happen. Luckily, Decision Desk HQ and 0ptimus have run back the successful 2018 House and Senate models, with a new Presidential one as well, and therefore there are many interesting takeaways from the modelling. This is not an exhaustive list, … [Read more...] about Six Notable Takeaways From The Decision Desk HQ/0ptimus Model
Trump’s Approval Ratings Shows Why Biden Is A Substantial Favorite To Win In November
With the great availability of horse race numbers at the Presidential level, and the proliferation of state and district polls of varying quality and partisan lean to shift through, one of the more basic polling measures - Presidential approval - is frequently ignored. In spite of that fact, it may actually be the simplest way to explain why Joe Biden is the favorite to win the … [Read more...] about Trump’s Approval Ratings Shows Why Biden Is A Substantial Favorite To Win In November
The Polls May Be Tightening A Bit, But Trump Is Still In Major Trouble
The great talking point of US politics right now is whether the polls are tightening or not, and whether the consequence of a tightening - a second Trump term - is more likely than it was a week ago or a month ago. The thing is, the answer to those two questions are counterintuitive - there seems to be some tightening, but it doesn't make Trump substantially more likely to win … [Read more...] about The Polls May Be Tightening A Bit, But Trump Is Still In Major Trouble