Those long-time readers of the Desk know of my special affinity (some would call it an obsession) with the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Throughout 2015 and 2016, I tracked voter registration changes as it finally ceased its long role as "Lucy's Football" for the GOP, and continued to keep an eye on figures well beyond that fateful November. So, what do the numbers show, so far … [Read more...] about Voter Registration Changes in Pennsylvania and the 2018 midterms
Forecaster and model assessments of the House and Senate
While we have our own House and Senate model, which currently give the Democrats an 80.13% chance of winning the former with 224 seats, and the Republicans an 84.77% chance of retaining the latter with 51 seats, it's always good to get a second, third, and nth opinion. So here is every public model's current assessment of both chambers along with projected seat counts where … [Read more...] about Forecaster and model assessments of the House and Senate
Rhode Island Primary Preview
Fourty-seven states down, two to go in primary 2018. Tonight, it's Rhode Island's turn. The state has been lopsidedly Democratic in the Presidential vote for decades, but it elected Republican Governors for twelve straight years until 2010, and its First Congressional District, represented by Democrat David Cicilline, was competitive that same year. For most contests, the … [Read more...] about Rhode Island Primary Preview
First in the Presidential, Near Last in the State Primaries: New Hampshire Preview
Something Different For Decision Desk HQ Readers Tonight In New Hampshire: Look, you are going to read plenty of race previews for New Hampshire, if you're that big of an election junkie. So let's get right to the real exciting element about today: live precinct-level interactive returns for both competitive primaries in the 1st Congressional District. We selected this … [Read more...] about First in the Presidential, Near Last in the State Primaries: New Hampshire Preview
(Guest Post)- 2018 Profile: Ohio’s 1st District
Matt Hodges, a software engineer who studies campaign finance and election data, submits his analysis of OH-1. As he summed it up, a cracked Cincinnati may dash Democratic hopes. Overview Ohio's 1st Congressional district is located in the Southwest corner of the state. It is comprised of much of Hamilton County (Cincinnati) and Warren County. With the exception of 2009–2011, … [Read more...] about (Guest Post)- 2018 Profile: Ohio’s 1st District