Between federal and major statewide contests, the various contributors to DDHQ keep their eyes on local elections and specials. Here's a rundown of the major ones from last night. Jacksonville- Municipal Elections The top of the ticket wasn't even contested this go-around, in stark contrast to the 2015 race which saw Republican Lenny Curry narrowly defeat … [Read more...] about Election Night Recap for 3/19/2019
Net Favorabilty Changes in Presidential Election Cycles
I saw a conversation back and forth earlier this morning on the negative favorability ratings for nearly every Democratic nominee. A tweet by CNN contributor Harry Enten caught my eye: YouGov's latest poll: Dems lead the generic prez ballot by 49% to 40% over Trump, but none of the candidates (save Biden) have a positive net favorable score. (Schultz has by far the worst.) … [Read more...] about Net Favorabilty Changes in Presidential Election Cycles
2019 U.S. House Special Elections Recap
There are three vacant seats in the U.S. House, all of them held by Republicans, that will be filled through special elections this year. One is due to an incumbent's death, one due to a resignation, and the final one carries over from last Fall, with a state board unanimously calling a new election as potential election fraud called the November results into … [Read more...] about 2019 U.S. House Special Elections Recap
The Caucus Map Shrinks in 2020 (Update- Even Further!)
As we race towards 2020, state governments and parties have been changing their calendars. But some have gone a step further, switching from caucuses to primaries. The 2016 cycle saw a total of twenty states and territories nominate in the former method, and it gave a bit of a lift to one candidate who is facing this party’s voters yet again. Bernie Sanders performed far more … [Read more...] about The Caucus Map Shrinks in 2020 (Update- Even Further!)
The Baseline Problem
When Election Twitter explores the result of a special or regular election, comparisons to previous elections inevitably arise, as this niche world obsessed with numbers attempts to deduce what has changed, and, for the multitude of partisans involved, which side benefited from the race. Someone unfamiliar with the particularities of contests may just assume that the party … [Read more...] about The Baseline Problem