Off-cycle elections are not perfect predictors of a future election. A single data point with lower than average turnout is vulnerable to random and parochial local events. This holds true no matter the country. There were four United Kingdom constituency by-elections – the equivalent of a U.S. Congressional special election – in the past two months. The National Conservative … [Read more...] about The Peculiar Nature of Off-Cycle Elections in the United Kingdom
David and Goliath: The Fall of Benjamin Netanyahu
Israeli voters went to the polls on March 23 for the fourth election in two years, and the electorate once again returned a set of results detrimental to the construction of a majority government. I noted as much in my previous Decision Desk article on the results of the Israeli election. Neither of the two pre-election party alliances commanded a majority in the Knesset … [Read more...] about David and Goliath: The Fall of Benjamin Netanyahu
Peru, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador, and the Struggle to Change a Broken System
Latin American democracy has never lived up to its ideals and values. Two months ago, Decision Desk Headquarters analyzed the unfortunate Latin American political undercurrents of corruption, political fragmentation, “Caudillo” politicians, and wide wealth gaps. We analyzed the Ecuadorian Presidential runoff, the first round of the Peruvian Presidential Election, and the then … [Read more...] about Peru, Mexico, Chile, Ecuador, and the Struggle to Change a Broken System
Previewing the Special Election for Texas’s Sixth Congressional District
Voters in Texas’s Sixth Congressional district vote this Saturday, May 1, to decide who they wish to replace their late Representative Ron Wright. Wright had pre-existing lung cancer and died from COVID-19 complications on February 7, 2021. Wright’s passing necessitated a special election to finish his term. Voters can choose between 23 candidates – eleven Republicans, ten … [Read more...] about Previewing the Special Election for Texas’s Sixth Congressional District
Previewing the Special Election Runoff for Louisiana’s Second Congressional District
Voters in Louisiana’s Second Congressional district vote in a special Congressional election runoff tomorrow. LA-02 became vacant when incumbent Democrat Cedric Richmond resigned January 15 to join the Biden administration. None of the 15 candidates running to replace Richmond won a majority of support in the all-party March 20 special election, necessitating a runoff under … [Read more...] about Previewing the Special Election Runoff for Louisiana’s Second Congressional District