The 2020 election presents a number of challenges, one of which is predicting turnout. In the past reporting services like Decision Desk HQ used “Precincts Reporting” as the metric to gauge how much of the vote was in in a particular county or state. With more and more people voting early or by mail, even before Covid-19, precincts reporting was becoming less and less useful but the increase in mail and early voting this year made it even more important to find a new metric.
To give you an idea of how this will work and how our forecast was developed Scott Tranter and Dr. Alexander Podkul PhD, join us to explain what the turnout forecast will tell us and what went into its development.