While there are a few races that are too early/close to call in Alaska (specifically in HD-15’s Republican primary, where an R incumbent who caucuses with Democrats is down by 4 votes) the Desk is ready to cast its first ratings for Alaska and Wyoming’s state legislatures. We will update ratings accordingly should any results change after recounts and provisional ballots.
AK House ratings
AK Senate ratings
WY House ratings
WY Senate ratings
Both state legislatures in Wyoming are most definitely remaining Republican supermajorities. Wyoming Democrats are almost certain to pick up an open Republican seat in the State Senate in Teton County, the only county that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016. They also have a few more opportunities that could lead to another flip in the State Senate and upwards of 7 seats in the State House. The WY GOP could possibly snag another seat in the State Senate though, as well as upwards of 4 seats in the State House. It all depends on how big the “blue wave” this November is: whether it just crashes against the shore with little movement in the most Republican state in the country, or it sweeps up a few seats.
In Alaska, the State Senate is certain to remain in Republican hands. However, the State House is a pure toss-up. Currently we’re estimating that Republicans are currently favored to flip 3 coalition-controlled seats (a coalition of Democrats, a handful of Republicans and Independents control the State House currently) and could flip 4 more. Democrats are currently barely favored to flip one seat due to the incumbent losing their primary, but could flip upwards of 3 more. Again, all depends on how big the midterm wave is. Movement in the competitive gubernatorial contest and not-totally-out-of-reach U.S. House race will probably give us a good sense of how things swing as we head towards November.