A Look At 2018 Primary Season Highlights And What They May Mean For November

Last week marked the end of the 2018 primary season. We began our results coverage the first week of March in Texas and finished last Thursday in NY.

As part of our weekly newsletter (which you receive when you sign up for access to our results and the 0ptimus Forecast Model here) DDHQ Executive Director Brandon Finnigan took a look back at some of the key races that may determine the outcome in November. You can find the Øptimus race ratings and information about all of the contests covered here and any other federal election here.

Here are some highlights:

March 6th– Texas 7th Congressional district Democratic primary

Democrats have set their sights on John Culberson since his district narrowly voted for Clinton in November of 2016. Their candidate, Lizzie Fletcher, faced off against six other Democrats and secured a position for a runoff which she won handily over Laura Moser. But had she been locked out in March, Moser had the second highest name-ID and could have very well won the primary, and with her unapologetically progressive platform, could have made this seat, currently rated a toss-up by most, a safer one for the GOP. Fletcher is currently polling a few points behind Culberson in the live New York Times/Siena poll.

March 20th– Illinois 3rd Congressional district Democratic primary

Incumbent Dan Lipinski faced his strongest primary challenge to date in Marie Newman. Lipinski was able to hold on, delaying a narrative of liberal/progressive ousters of more moderate/conservative incumbents for several months. A Newman victory may have encouraged more progressive candidates to run in other states, making Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’ win yet another part of a snowball – or perhaps giving Joe Crowley a serious wake up call early enough to derail her rise.

June 5th California Congressional Contests, Gubernatorial Contest, New Jersey U.S. House 2nd District Republican

California Republicans knew they were going to get locked out of the U.S. Senate jungle primary and were sweating 2017 privately about being locked out of the gubernatorial election as well. John Cox and Travis Allen both ran, potentially splitting the state’s minority Republican vote, but endorsements from the President and personal spending allowed Cox to climb and defeat former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa for second position, assuring a Republican presence on the top of the ballot.

Congressional contests in California, because of the jungle primary system, posted a very real threat to Democrats of a lock-out in a pile of districts:

CA 39, CA 48, and CA49. Gil Cisneros (D) managed to edge out five other Democrats and the next closest Republican, Phil Liberatore, by over 5% in the 39th, preventing a lock-out there.

Harley Rouda (D) managed to edge out his nearest Democratic rival Hans Keirstead by 125 votes and the next-closest Republican Scott Baugh by 2,575, thereby averting a lockout in the 48th.

The 49th turned out to be the least in danger of a lock-out, with Mike Levin (D) edging his next-closest Democratic rival by 3,000 votes- and the next-closest Republican by double their count.

The only Congressional primary to see the Democrats shut-out was in California’s 8th district, but that wasn’t going to be seriously contested in the fall. A bit more strategic voting by Republicans could have changed things considerably in two seats (39 and 48) currently considered toss-ups, but it wasn’t to be.

In New Jersey, a pile of retirements meant competitive primaries, and none would prove more consequential than the 2nd District race to replace Republican incumbent Frank LoBiodo. Seth Grossman won with barely 39% of the vote. It was already a difficult seat to retain, having voted for Hillary Clinton and then-Senator Barack Obama. But comments of Grossman’s dug up by reporters proved so heinous in the eyes of the National Republican Congressional Committee, they withdrew their endorsement and funding for his campaign.

July 24th Georgia Gubernatorial election, Republican

The runoff between Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp eventually boiled down to who was the most conservative, and that was a battle Kemp won easily in late July. Because of Republican and Democratic voters’ primary choices, the gubernatorial election pits a clear progressive against a clear conservative with little room for moderation. Neither candidate, Abrams or Kemp, shy away from their ideology, each has their strengths and weaknesses in the metro Atlanta area, and it will be one of the most hotly contested races, perhaps well beyond November- if neither wins an outright majority on November 6th, they’ll face each other one last time in a December runoff.

August 7th Kansas Gubernatorial primary, Republican

Secretary of State Kris Kobach managed to narrowly defeat incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer by one of the tiniest margins of any contest this year. Kobach has been an outspoken conservative and is running in a state where former Governor Sam Brownback,who had polled as one of the least popular governors in the nation, led in a very similar style. Democrats were hoping Brownback’s poor approval would translate into a possible pickup and may have even smiled about the Republican gubernatorial primary result, but they have their own problem to contend with: independent candidate Greg Orman, who is more likely to siphon off their voters than Kobach’s.

September 4th Massachusetts 7th Congressional district, Democratic

If Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’ victory proved that tenacious campaigning could lead to progressive victories in districts represented by more moderate Democrats, the 7th district primary fight proves the value of “its time for a change” and “its time for newer voices and faces”, something that could come into play more in 2020 as we’ve run out of primaries. Incumbent Mike Capuano wasn’t a blue dog like Lipinski or a “more moderate than the district suggests” like Crowley, but had a record of progressive votes spanning twenty years. He was clearly out-campaigned by Boston councilwoman Ayanna Pressley, who criss-crossed the district and earned the endorsement of the Boston Herald on her message of being a new voice. Sometimes, it isn’t whether or not you’ve cast the right votes. Sometimes, people want something new- even in a year that favors your team.

You can find the Øptimus Forecast Model ratings for these and all other House and Senate general elections here.

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