On the eve of Election Day, there is a high likelihood of split chamber control of Congress once the dust settles. In the past week, the national environment shifted from D+7.9 to D+7.1 while presidential approval dipped to a net negative 14 points. It is a longshot for Republicans to keep the House, though Democrats do have a very narrow path to taking the Senate.
Details about the modeling can be found here and sign-up is free. Our final update will be up on the website only at noon on Election Day.
GOP chances of retaining the House: 4.4% (-1.1 since the 11/02 update) with a mean prediction of 202 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 92% (-1.1% since the 11/02 update) with a mean seat prediction of 52-48 GOP majority.
Biggest House movers are FL-25, GA-06, IL-14, MI-08, NY-24, WA-08.
Biggest Senate movers are Florida and New Jersey.
