With 36 days remaining, our model continues to track towards Democrats in the House while holding steady for Republicans in the Senate. The generic ballot national environment shifted down to D+8 this week but was counteracted in the House by district polling that was generally favorable for Democrats. With new FEC data on the horizon for the next couple weeks, both parties need a game-changer in order to break the current trajectory in both chambers.
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GOP chances of retaining the House: 13.7% (-6.1% in past week) with a mean prediction of 209 GOP Seats (218 for control).
GOP chances of retaining the Senate: 87% (+0.3% in past week) with a mean seat prediction of a 52-48 GOP majority.
Biggest House movers this week are NH-01, MI-01, and AZ-08
Biggest Senate movers this week are North Dakota and Missouri.
