Election Day in America is always the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November every four years. Generations ago, nearly all Americans cast their presidential ballots on the day of the election, but today, Election Day means Election Season. The propensity of Americans to cast their ballot through the mail and during an early in-person period continues to rise, and we’ve reached a point where there are more votes cast before and after Election Day than on it.
Let’s examine the four distinct voting method blocks for this year’s election and estimate the votes I expect from each. The data to construct this 2024 projection and compare vs. the 2020 results was compiled using voter history files, turnout reports, and other available data from all state and county election boards. I’ve separated it by state; it is available at the county level for anyone to reference. Keep in mind, this is my early first look and expectations. The Decision Desk HQ team creates turnout estimates for each race that factors in the actual AB/EV and day of projections on election day.
Voting habits returned to somewhat usual standards in 2022 (and 2023). I’ll use the 2022 midterm election as a baseline for voting method proclivity and adjust for a few state legislative law changes (Kentucky, Wisconsin, New York). One hundred fifty-nine million votes were cast in the 2020 general election, and I anticipate this year to fall about 5% short of the all-time high.
| Vote Method | Total Vote | Vote Share |
| Early Absentee Mail | 36.7 Million | 24.33% |
| Early In-Person | 30.6 Million | 20.31% |
| Election Day | 73.3 Million | 48.66% |
| Late Absentee Mail | 10.1 Million | 6.70% |
Early Absentee Mail (Received Before Election Day)
Absentee mail has become the go-to voting method for most West Coast and Mountain states. California, Arizona, Oregon, Washington, Montana, Colorado, and Utah conduct their elections today almost entirely by mail. Nevada mails every active vote a ballot, and states that include Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania will see more than 1 million ballots cast by mail this year. Other states not mentioned will receive a sizable portion of their total vote through the mail or through placed drop boxes throughout the state.
Far and away, California leads the early absentee push, with county clerks expected to receive more than 11 million mail ballots before election day.
Early In-Person Voting
Forty-seven states offer some form of early in-person voting, and the timeline for early voting expands each election cycle. Virginia’s window is the largest and officially starts on September 20th, 45 days before the election. Kentucky offers the smallest window, with just three early in-person voting days beginning on Halloween and ending on November 2nd.
Texas leads early voting turnout. In 2022, 64% of all votes were cast during the in-person early voting period. With an expected turnout of 11.5 million voters in Texas this November, the state will again lead the way, with more than 7 million voters voting early in-person.
Three states currently have no form of early in-person voting. Alabama, Mississippi & New Hampshire.
Election Day Voting (Including Provisionals)
With most Americans who intend to vote already having cast a ballot either by mail or in person early, election day in many states has become much less chaotic, with shorter lines and a much faster voting process. The first polling place opens at 6 a.m. ET (Maine), and the last close at 1 a.m. ET (Hawaii).
In 2024, New York will likely lead the way with the most election-day votes, with more than 5.5 million votes, but that’s not guaranteed. The state recently adopted no-excuse absentee mail voting, and New Yorkers are more likely to choose an absentee ballot this election cycle. If not New York, the next state to cast the most election-day votes this year would be Pennsylvania, with an estimated 5 million.
Late Absentee Mail (Received On or After Election Day)
Any absentee ballot not in the county’s possession before election day would be classified as a late absentee. This includes mail ballots delivered on or after Election Day and all ballots collected from drop boxes on Election Day. It takes a bit of time for counties to collect, process, and record these votes, considering they have other responsibilities on election day, so nearly all of these votes begin to be counted on Wednesday, the day after.
The West Coast & Mountain states mentioned earlier, which run almost all-mail elections, contribute most to the late absentee mail count. Still, a few others, like Maryland and Wisconsin, will also add a sizable amount post-November 5th. Most states require all absentee ballots to be received no later than election day, while just over a dozen allow mail to be counted so long as it has the proper postmark and is received within a state-allotted time frame.
Once again, California will have the most late absentee ballots and is expected to register more than 5 million.
The 11-Week Journey
North Carolina kicks us off on September 6th and is typically the first state to mail out its absentees 60 days before the election begins. Sometime in late November, California is generally the last state to record a received vote. This means counties send, receive, process, and record election votes for about eleven weeks. The cumulative line graph below shows the progression of this period and what 150 million votes look like when you spread four methods out over 77 days.
Even though election season officially kicks off September 6th, we won’t begin to see a significant portion of the vote until more than a month later. You’ll also notice that nearly all late absentee mail is counted the first week after the election (a few hundred thousand votes after November 12th will remain).
Comparing 2024 Projections to 2020 Vote Methods
In 2020, COVID-19 had a tremendous impact on the way Americans voted. States adopted emergency legislation that allowed many voters to vote by no-excuse absentee, and the number of early ballots skyrocketed. However, many states offered this as a ‘one-time’ emergency. North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Pennsylvania, and others saw a record number of one-time mail ballot requests that did not carry over to future elections. This marked the only presidential election where absentee mail had a more significant share of the vote than election day.
A side-by-side look shows that this year, election day is expected to absorb more than 25 million votes from all other voting methods compared to 2020. State law changes and a ‘return to normalcy’ mean more voting on election day 2024.
| Vote Method | 2020 Share | 2024 (Projected) Share | Difference |
| Early Absentee Mail | 35.67% | 24.33% | -11.34% |
| Early In-Person | 22.04% | 20.31% | -1.73% |
| Election Day | 31.70% | 48.66% | +16.96% |
| Late Absentee Mail | 10.59% | 6.70% | -3.89% |