The 2024 Republican primary technically began on Nov. 15 in Mar-a-Lago as Former President Donald Trump announced his third campaign for President of the United States. But, for election fanatics like us, it certainly has not felt as if much has happened.
Soon the 2024 Presidential Primary Campaign will begin to heat up, and Republicans are at a major crossroads in their party’s future. While Republican primary voters have mandated Trump free reign over the direction of the GOP for the last six years, there is dissent against him growing in the party. After January 6th, both voters and elites began to sour on Trump, and this negative development intensified after a disappointing 2022 Midterm election for Republicans. Candidates closely aligned with Trump and claims of election fraud, such as Doug Mastriano (PA Gov.) and Kari Lake (AZ Gov.), suffered especially notable defeats. As the party is no longer completely united by Trump, GOP voters will have to decide who will lead their party into 2024. The GOP coalition is currently composed of five different groups of voters, and candidates will look to build a majority (or at least plurality) by winning at least three of the five groups of voters.
1. Social Moderates
Although they compose an increasingly smaller share of Republican elites, a significant proportion of Republicans/Republican leaners are more moderate (about a third according to Pew Research) than almost every GOP congressman. While voters in this group will turn out to vote at far lower rates than other more committed Republicans, enough will weigh into the 2024 GOP Primary to make their voice heard. While these voters are generally fiscally conservative, they hold positions close to the median American on issues such as abortion and immigration. These voters are generally young, less religious than other GOP voters, and live in suburban areas. Social Moderates are unhappy Republicans are losing elections and are most driven to vote for the GOP by their fear of leftist economic policies; they are the most likely group to sacrifice conservative bona-fides for electability in primary elections. Given that Social Moderates are the most anti-Trump group of Republican voters, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would need to win their support in order to defeat Trump. DeSantis should not be worried about losing these voters to Trump himself, but rather a third candidate such as former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan or Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin. Given that this group of voters includes Democrats and Independents who will choose a Republican ballot in open primary states, even a “resist” Republican candidate such as former Congresswoman Liz Cheney could find at least some success with Social Moderates. The 2024 primary may come down to a simple question: can a single challenger to Trump unite the rest of the party against him? Politicians like Evan McMullin and Mitt Romney embody the views of these voters best, although they are underrepresented among the political elite.
2. Reagan Republicans
Reagan Republicans are more conservative than Social Moderates, and together these two groups of Republican voters form the traditional GOP establishment. Although Reagan Republicans still constitute the vast majority of Republican elites, it dwarfs their decreasing share among the Republican electorate. Reagan Republicans tend to be pro-life, pro-gun, and fiscally conservative. These voters supported candidates like Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and John Kasich against Trump in the 2016 GOP Primary and have never come to terms with his divisive rhetoric and substantial federal spending. While staunchly conservative and happy to support Trump over Biden, Reagan Republicans are more likely to believe that Biden fairly won the 2020 Presidential Election and might want to move on from Trump and Trumpism. These voters are searching for a strong, steady, and electable conservative to support against Trump, and many believe they have found one in Ron DeSantis. If any third candidate is going to form a decent challenge to DeSantis or Trump, they will have to start by winning over Reagan Republicans from RDS. Politicians like Mitch McConnell and Pat Toomey embody the views of these voters best, although so do most of the Republican political elite.
3. Only Trump
“Only Trump” voters are some of the most straightforward people in America. They support Donald Trump, ride or die. Even if Trump pushes far-right conspiracy theories or moderates on historically key conservative positions, Only Trumpers will support both his rhetoric and agenda. These are the voters who even came out to support even his most disastrous endorsements in 2022, such as Charles Herbster (NE Gov.) and Janice McGeachin (ID Gov.), but might not be bothered to turn out for DeSantis or Nikki Haley against Joe Biden in 2024. This group is disproportionately composed of white voters without a college degree, and tend to be located in states without a strong historical Republican establishment such as in the Rust Belt and Appalachia. Only Trump members tend to be relatively low-interest voters with undefined political views and varying levels of religiosity. They strongly believe the 2020 election was stolen and tend to be untrustworthy of establishment politics and the US Government in general. Trump has a stranglehold on these voters for the GOP primary and his competitors will be left wondering whether they will be able to ever assimilate their voters into their general election coalition. Trump himself will have a lot of say in how these voters will react if the GOP chooses a different nominee. Politicians like Tommy Tuberville and Roger Marshall embody the views of these voters the best, although they are less common among the political elite.
4. The Populist Right
The Populist Right is a steadily growing block of right-wing populist voters steadily gaining more and more power in Republican Primaries. Trump dominated with these voters in 2016, as they powered him past other competitors more aligned with the GOP’s establishment. The Populist Right tend to be less religious than other right-wing voters and is extremely critical of their own party’s business establishment, neoconservatism, and globalism. These voters are especially concerned about growing immigration and are likeliest to focus on more niche culture war issues as well as classic right-wing issues such as gun rights and abortion. Although the Populist Right generally supports Trump, MAGA, and “America First” policies, many of these voters disobeyed his wishes in 2022. They voted against his endorsed candidates in key Senate primaries, instead backing so-called “super MAGA” candidates like Kathy Barnette and Josh Mandel. Given that Trump seems unlikely to face a primary challenge from the “super MAGA” wing of the party, he certainly should hold the advantage with these voters. But DeSantis will not let these voters go easily, as he continues to create public culture war fights to build his brand. Politicians like Josh Hawley and Marjorie Taylor Greene embody the views of these voters the best, although they are less common among the political elite.
5. The Evangelical Right
The Evangelical Right is the most religious block of Republican Primary voters, as well as the most conservative block of voters in the traditional sense of the term. Trump struggled with these voters throughout the 2016 Republican Primary, losing many of them (who are likely to self-identify as “very conservative”) to Ted Cruz. While voters in this block eventually came to embrace Trump and Trumpism, he has never had as strong of a relationship with them as with the Populist Right. Trump has moderated on some key portions of the right-wing agenda, both on fiscal issues but also social issues such as gay marriage, much to the chagrin of evangelicals. His Vice Presidential pick, Mike Pence, helped him cement the support of these voters in 2016, but his relationship with Pence has turned rocky after January 6th. Other candidates should see a slight opening here in 2024, but it is unclear who (other than DeSantis) has the credentials to seize this opportunity. In some ways, these voters may be the main battleground for Trump and DeSantis. Politicians like Mike Pence and Mike Huckabee embody the views of these voters the best.
The Road Ahead
The 2024 GOP Presidential Primary will center on one key question: can anyone defeat Donald Trump? Given Trump’s strong relationship and solid backing with two of the five groups listed above (Only Trump voters and The Populist Right), he has a head start over everyone else. DeSantis seems like the candidate best positioned to oppose him, given his national popularity and potential ability to appeal to both his party’s establishment and conservative firebrand wings. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, Haley, and Youngkin have been floated as more electable conservative options, but none of them are in touch with The Populist Right and would have difficulty winning over Only Trump voters. Larry Hogan seems likely to make a run at the GOP nomination, but it is hard to see Republicans pivoting that hard away from Trump and towards the center. And finally, if a replacement for Trump is needed, prediction markets seem to think former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would be next to take over the Trump-loyalist MAGA wing of the party. As the nation embarks on another chaotic presidential campaign, you can be sure to rely on up-to-date news and analysis here at DecisionDesk HQ.