DDHQ Election Day Spotlight: Good Day for MAGA in IL, but Underwhelming Performance in NE-01 Mars Night for GOP

Morning Headlines

• In IL-15, Freedom Caucus member Mary Miller defeated conservative but Trump-skeptic Rodney Davis in the IL-15 primary. Although Davis performed solidly within his old district and within Mary Miller’s old district (each composed about a third of the new district), he was crushed in neutral territory that neither of them represented. Miller won 80% of the vote with elevated turnout in Adams County (Quincy), the site of Trump’s rally in the state a few days ago where he endorsed Miller. Davis, an ally of Republican House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, was expected to chair the House Admin Committee if he won re-election. Miller recently created a nationwide controversy after thanking the Supreme Court for pushing a victory for “white life”  by overruling Roe v Wade. Downstate State Senator Darren Bailey dominated the field in the Illinois GOP Governor Primary. Richard Irvin, who was given $50 million by Hedge Fund Manager Ken Griffin, even lost his home county to Bailey by nearly 30%. Both of these results are big wins for Trump, who showed he still has a stranglehold on the GOP Primary Electorate.
• In the NE-01 Special Election, the Republican nominee Mike Flood won by an underwhelming margin against the Democratic nominee Patty Brooks. This Lincoln-based district voted for Trump by 11% in 2020, but Flood only won by about 7% last night. Given that Flood outspent Brooks by a margin of 10-to-1, this result is even more worrisome for the GOP in light of the overruling of Roe. v Wade. Brooks attempted to mobilize pro-choice voters in light of the decision, and turnout in Democratic-leaning Lancaster County (Lincoln) with respect to the 2020 Presidential Result eclipsed the rest of the district.
• In Colorado, Joe O’Dea and Heidi Ganahl won solid victories over farther right Ron Hanks and Greg Lopez in Colorado GOP Senate and Governor primaries, respectfully. This is another big loss for Democrats hoping to meddle in GOP primaries, who boosted big-lie supporters Hanks and Lopez hoping they would prove to be easier to defeat in the general election. O’Dea notably said he would be the “Republican Joe Manchin” if he defeated Incumbent Democratic Senator Michael Bennet in November, solidifying his credentials as a moderate. Lauren Boebert defeated a more centrist challenger Don Coram in the CO-03 primary by a slightly underwhelming 65%-35% margin. There was a lot of crossover voting from unaffiliated voters that likely benefitted Coram, but Boebert won crushing margins among Republicans. Considering how underfunded Coram was, this poor margin of victory certainly leaves an opening for moderate Democratic Adam Frisch. Frisch will hope to court Coram’s voters as he pursues a path to an upset in November.
• In New York, incumbents Kathy Hochul and Antonio Delgado easily defeated left-wing opposition in the NY Democratic Gubernatorial and Lieutenant Gubernatorial Democratic Primaries. Notably, NY-03 Representative Tom Suozzi gave up his congressional seat to finish 3rd in the Democratic Gubernatorial primary. NY-01 Representative Lee Zeldin easily defeated the field to win the NY GOP Governor nomination through strength in Long Island and upstate New York. Rob Astorino dominated Westchester County and Andrew Guliani dominated New York City, but Zeldin’s geographic strength proved more powerful in the Republican primary.
• In MS-03, incumbent Michael Guest won a convincing victory over challenger Michael Cassidy after the national GOP hammered Cassidy for his populist economic policies throughout the past few weeks. Guest nearly lost outright in the primary after he lost rural Trump-loyalist areas (ostensibly because of his support for the Jan 6th commission) but Cassidy got crushed in those same rural areas last night after voters learned he supported Medicare for All and a form of UBI for couples with children. In MS-04, incumbent Steven Palazzo (who was dogged by ethic violations throughout his re-election campaign) lost to challenger Mike Ezell after Palazzo’s other primary challengers coalesced around Ezell. Ezell and Palazzo are similar from both a policy and rhetoric perspective.
• In Oklahoma, ultra-MAGA candidate and Cherokee Nation member Markwayne Mullin won a convincing plurality of votes in the GOP Senate Primary Special Election to serve the last four years of retiring Jim Inhofe’s term. Mullin dominated in his Eastern congressional district and in neighboring Tulsa but was prevented from winning a majority of the vote and avoiding a run-off by T.W. Shannon, who performed the best in the Oklahoma City and Norman areas.

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