Donald Trump has had a rough past couple of weeks, after months of the COVID-19 pandemic. To put it mildly, Trump is in some big trouble. In my Presidential Forecast, Trump’s chance of winning has dropped by 6% down to 28.3%. This is by no terms out of it, roughly the odds the dealer busts in a game of blackjack. His chances have been hit hard due his slipping position in swing states.
|
Change over last |
||||
|
State |
Trump Win |
Vote |
Win |
Margin |
|
Wisconsin |
33.1 |
46.0 |
-9.9 |
-2.1 |
|
Georgia |
58.7 |
49.7 |
-9.4 |
-1.8 |
|
Arizona |
39.2 |
46.5 |
-8.2 |
-1.6 |
|
North Carolina |
39.2 |
47.9 |
-7.4 |
-1.3 |
|
Michigan |
20.5 |
44.9 |
-7.1 |
-1.7 |
|
Iowa |
60.3 |
48.8 |
-6.8 |
-1.6 |
|
Florida |
36.8 |
47.4 |
-6.3 |
-1.2 |
|
Nevada |
22.3 |
43.7 |
-5.8 |
-1.6 |
|
Nebraska-2 |
48.5 |
47.5 |
-5.7 |
-1.3 |
|
Minnesota |
18.5 |
43.1 |
-5.5 |
-1.2 |
|
Maine-2 |
59.4 |
48.3 |
-5.5 |
-1.5 |
|
Texas |
72.5 |
50.9 |
-5.2 |
-1.4 |
|
New Hampshire |
24.0 |
44.5 |
-4.9 |
-1.4 |
|
Pennsylvania |
27.9 |
46.0 |
-4.6 |
-0.9 |
|
Maine |
15.0 |
41.4 |
-3.6 |
-1.4 |
The data that has pushed the forecast towards Biden is recent top-tier pollsters showing Biden up double digits nationally, and recent Fox News polls in Arizona, Wisconsin, and Ohio with Biden leads.
The past few months have been pretty bad for the sitting President. With his botched handling of COVID-19, and his non-stop rants on Twitter, the President doesn’t seem to be making his situation better. The recent murder of George Floyd and aftermath have made it even harder for the President given his response to it. If Trump would stay off Twitter, he would have a real shot at winning it. The thing that won it for him in 2016 could make him a Lame Duck President.