What 2020 is about is can Donald Trump extend his stay at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave for 4 more years. President Trump is a pretty interesting place as of right now. What has kept Trump’s re-election hopes high was a strong economy, which has all but come to a complete halt due to COVID-19.But given the circumstances, maybe voters are putting of the recent economic struggle when judging Trump as some polling has recently suggested. So what this article is going to go over how Trump is preforming compared to 2016, using my presidential forecast. Currently the model has Trump at roughly 46% chance of winning re-election so pretty much a tossup as of now.
The Battleground States
When it comes to the states that matter most, Trump is underperforming in all but two states, Georgia and Florida. With Georgia there has been a lot of talk about it moving to left very quickly, but disagree. From 2012 – 2016 it only shifted about 3 points to the Democrats. If this trend continued, they would have won the Gubernatorial race in 2018. However Kemp won by a little more than a point. If anything, using lean vs the national vote, it shifted back towards the Republicans. Many people attribute this to people not being able to vote, and with Kemp as governor, it probably won’t change if you believed that was the caused Kemp to win the Gubernatorial election. With Florida it is pretty simple, it is been shifting towards the GOP for a while.
The midwest was what propelled Trump to victory in 2016, and it what might send him packing. Iowa and Ohio are places where he is underperforming, but still in the Lean GOP column. Minnesota was a close state that Trump lost in 2016 by a bout a point, but he is underperforming there and likely won’t be one of the close races in 2020. If these states flip, the election will probably already not be a close one. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are the states that will decide the election from the midwest. Trump isn’t underperforming as much as the other two, but he is barely leading there. Pennsylvania is still a tossup, but Biden leading by about a point. Michigan seems to be drifting more towards the Democrats more than the other two.
Arizona, Texas, and North Carolina are the last three states I am going to go over in this article. Texas seems to staying red for a little bit long. Polling has indicated it being a little closer, but at this point in 2016 it was showing the same thing for Clinton, so I don’t believe it will be a tossup. If Texas is one, then it will not matter as the election will not be even close. Arizona and North Carolina have a better chance to flip than Florida, in my opinion. Trump is not very popular in Arizona, and with a very strong Democratic candidate in the Arizona senate race, it seems as if 2020 is the year it flips. North Carolina has been a swing state for a while. However Trump carried it by about the same margin as Georgia. I see North Carolina and Arizona as the two biggest races to watch in 2020.
Like I said at the beginning, 2020 will come down to if Trump can preform well enough to have his 2016 numbers, or will he underperform 2016 and lose to Biden. Right now it is pretty early, but it seems like it will come down to the wire.