This year, DecisionDeskHQ is partnering with UVA’s Center for Politics Crystal Ball to provide fast and accurate delegate counts for the Democratic nomination as the primaries and caucuses play out. Our update today covers the first two contests, Iowa and New Hampshire.
UPDATE SUMMARY
For nearly a week after the conclusion of the Iowa Caucuses, we held off on counting IA national delegates due to the slow tabulation and identified errors. The Iowa Democratic Party put out final numbers -pending a partial recanvass- for the Caucuses, including official national delegate counts. As a result, we updated our 2020 delegate count for the first time, confirming those numbers barring changes to the underlying SDEs in a recanvass. Tonight, we are also adding New Hampshire to the mix. Full New Hampshire results can be found at results.decisiondeskhq.com.
IOWA ALLOCATION
While Bernie Sanders won the most first and final alignment votes, national delegates are awarded based off of state delegate-equivalents, which does not necessarily align with the former two vote measures. Pending recanvassing, Pete Buttigieg has narrowly beaten Bernie Sanders in SDEs, 364.3 to 361.5. As a result, he gains a small edge in statewide delegates. Buttigieg did especially well in CD3, while CD2 was Sanders’ best district. Klobuchar gained one delegate as a result of her performance in CD4, the only location where she cracked the 15% threshold.
|
Candidate |
Total | At-Large | PLEOs | CD1 | CD2 | CD3 | CD4 |
|
Pete Buttigieg |
14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
|
Bernie Sanders |
12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
0 |
| Joe Biden | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
1 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1 |
NEW HAMPSHIRE ALLOCATION
The popular vote to delegate formula also does not work in Bernie Sanders’ favor in New Hampshire. While Sanders currently holds a 2% lead statewide, the math works out to a tie at the top with Pete Buttigieg on delegates. No difference is found based on congressional district.
|
Candidate |
Total | At-Large | PLEOs | CD1 | CD2 |
|
Bernie Sanders |
9 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
|
Pete Buttigieg |
9 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
3 |
| Amy Klobuchar | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
2 |
CURRENT NATIONAL COUNT
With Iowa and New Hampshire now updated, Buttigieg has a slight lead in delegates pending the Iowa recanvass.
|
Candidate |
National Total |
|
Pete Buttigieg |
23 |
| Bernie Sanders |
21 |
| Elizabeth Warren |
8 |
| Amy Klobuchar |
7 |
| Joe Biden |
6 |
UPCOMING RACES
We will have delegate counts for these elections available shortly after results are final. The elections are primaries, unless otherwise noted below.
Saturday, February 22nd: Nevada (Caucus)
Saturday, February 29th: South Carolina
Tuesday, March 3rd: Alabama, American Samoa (Caucus), Arkansas, California, Colorado, Democrats Abroad, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia
For more inquiries please reach out to Drew McCoy at [email protected].